Houston Community News >> Houston evacuation problems
5/27/2006 Houston-- The 14-hour traffic jams and gasoline shortages that accompanied last year's killer hurricanes led to improved evacuation plans for some hurricane-prone states. But that does not mean the next evacuation will go smoothly.
On the eve of hurricane season, emergency experts are worried that many large metropolitan areas simply cannot clear out quickly without problems, even those cites that are used to evacuating for storms. "I'm happy to see they're pulling out all the stops this time," said Brian Wolshon, a Louisiana State University engineer.
But he asks: "Is it possible to smoothly evacuate? I don't see it. It just overwhelms what we can realistically expect to provide." Communities in Texas and Louisiana have rewritten their evacuation plans to add fleets of buses, improve traffic management and ensure a large supply of gas. Still, when the winds begin to howl, Wolshon and other experts worry that any plans -- no matter how specific -- will not be enough.
Hurricane Katrina killed more than 1,500 people, many of whom could not leave because they did not have cars, or who did not want to endure snarled traffic. A few weeks later, 3 million people fled Hurricane Rita when it appeared the storm would slam into Galveston and swamp Houston. The storm turned east, sparing the most populated areas, but 137 people died in the evacuation, many succumbing to heat exhaustion along choked highways.
The new evacuation plans in Louisiana and Texas acknowledge that millions will flee when only thousands are in danger. So planners have to expect more traffic and encourage many scared residents to stay home. Texas now plans to open contraflow lanes 45 hours before tropical storm-force winds hit the coast. Last year, Houston waited several days before turning the highway lanes around, bearing much of the blame for clogged roads. Texas authorities had forecast about 700,000 evacuees in a hurricane. During Rita, nearly three times that number packed up and fled.
"It's a simple equation: if you have too much demand, you're going to overwhelm your capacity," Wolshon said. "There's a limit, and we're stretching it about as far as we can go using contraflow." During a hurricane drill in Texas last month, emergency officials planned for everyone to leave and for some families to evacuate in two or more cars. We did behavioral studies and found that people are not going to leave $30,000 cars behind," said Jack Colley, chief of the governor's Division of Emergency Management.
To improve evacuations, Texas focused on fuel shortages and evacuating the elderly and those without cars. Plans are now in place to put external, rubber fuel bladders at gas stations to double fuel capacity. Officials say they have also lined up trains, each capable of transporting 1,600 people. Whatever happens, she just wants it to be quicker next time. "It can't possibly be any worse," O'Neill said. "As long as I'm not sitting in traffic again all day, it will be better."
